Gaza’s hopes for ceasefire dim despite renewed US efforts following Lebanon truce

As an uneasy truce between Israel and Hezbollah offers the Lebanese a desperately needed reprieve, Palestinians in Gaza feel abandoned, even as the US pushes for a renewed effort to end the fighting in the enclave.

For almost a year, Hezbollah vowed not to stop battling Israel until it agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza. In September, Israel stepped up its campaign against the Lebanese militant group, assassinating its top brass and launching a ferocious aerial and ground operation into southern Lebanon, which forced Hezbollah to abandon its condition for a ceasefire.

“Gaza is left alone. Hezbollah has its own calculations to abandon Gaza to preserve what was left of its forces… it’s not to our advantage,” said Hatem Mohamed, 47, a resident of Gaza City. “This agreement will allow Israel to only focus on the Palestinians and what is left of the Palestinian cause.”

Negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages have been deadlocked for months, with both sides refusing to compromise on their demands.

Qatar, a key mediator in previous Gaza ceasefire negotiations, stepped back from its role this month and shut Hamas’ political office in the capital Doha after concluding that the two sides are no longer negotiating in good faith. Turkey, which has ties to Hamas, dispelled reports that the group’s bureau had been relocated to the country, but said that Hamas officials come and go from the country on a regular basis.

“I don’t think a ceasefire in Lebanon has changed much for the dynamics of a Gaza ceasefire,” said Tahani Mustafa, senior Palestine analyst at International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank.

“Both sides have mutually exclusive demands and there’s no pressure on Israel to really scale back and start taking the negotiation seriously. Israel wants to destroy Hamas, keep troops on the ground and potentially resettle in the north, which is unacceptable to Hamas,” she said. “Hamas wants a total cessation of hostilities, return of people to their homes in the north and no Israeli ground presence…that’s completely unacceptable to Israel.”

Netanyahu ‘not ready’ to end the war

Despite the setbacks, Israeli and American leaders have signaled that the Lebanon truce may present an opportunity to move forward with a ceasefire in Gaza.

The outgoing Biden administration maintains that there might now be “newfound opportunity” to drive forward a ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza.

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the conditions to reach a deal to secure the release of Israeli hostages from Gaza “have improved,” but maintained that he will not agree to the end of Israel’s war in the enclave, as Hamas has not yet been dismantled.

“(I’m) ready for a ceasefire at any moment. But ending the war, I’m not ready for that, because we also need to achieve the elimination of Hamas,” he said.

President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that the US will “make another push” with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza, to release the hostages and “end the war without Hamas in power.” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told parliament Wednesday his country was ready to contribute in “any way possible.” On Wednesday, Qatari Prime Minister Mohamed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi met in Cairo to discuss ceasefire efforts.

Hamas said Wednesday it is committed to cooperating with “any efforts” to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza after a truce was reached in Lebanon but reiterated its demand for Israel’s complete withdrawal from Gaza, the release of Palestinian prisoners and the return of Gazans to their homes.

More than 250 people were taken hostage and about 1,200 killed during the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. The following month, more than 100 hostages were released as part of a short-lived hostage-and-ceasefire deal. Since then, a handful of hostages have since been rescued by Israeli forces. Of the 101 hostages believed to still being held in Gaza, at least 34 are thought to be dead.

Jihad Abu Yasser, a 26-year-old baker who lives in northern Gaza, called Hamas’ negotiation tactics “a failure,” saying the hostages alone were no longer sufficient leverage in talks with the Israelis.

“We remained stubborn until half the hostages died, and we are negotiating with a losing card… We have maybe less than 70 hostages alive. If the war continues and we are stalling, and the (Israelis) are stalling, the hostages will die, which is our (leverage) card,” he said, adding that most Gazans feel that way. “All are saying: What are we negotiating over?”

“People are saying if Hezbollah finished (their war) then God-willing we are close (in Gaza)…These are lies,” Abu Yasser said. “For the love of God, stop, stop, stop (the war).”