Wave of Spot-Based Bitcoin ETFs Could Drive Bitcoin to $60K This Year: CoinShares
Despite facing hurdles, bitcoin’s price could rebound and potentially soar to $60,000 this year, per CoinShares’ analysis.
In a report published Monday, CoinShares forecasted 2024 as a pivotal year for digital assets, anticipating a surge in bitcoin’s value following the recent launch of spot-based bitcoin ETFs in the US.
On January 10, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) authorized 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF. The approval set the stage for robust competition for market share.
The SEC earlier rejected applications for spot bitcoin ETFs over investor safety concerns. Its latest decision marks a pivotal moment for the industry.
The 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a record-breaking $4 billion in trading volume on their debut, the largest for any single asset’s opening day in ETF history, experts say.
“This development, a decade in the making since the initial SEC application, has opened the market to a broader range of investors, representing a major milestone in the acceptance of digital assets,” James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, wrote on Monday.
Butterfill noted the difficulty in precisely forecasting post-launch investment flow.
But he estimated that 10% of the current $3 billion assets under management could drive bitcoin’s price to about $60,000. He did not specify an exact month or timeline for this occurrence.
The analyst also highlighted that monetary policy will play a crucial role in shaping bitcoin’s value this year.
He noted that while rising interest rates are currently leading investors to explore alternatives such as US Treasuries, an anticipated Fed rate cut in early 2024 could enhance the appeal of bitcoin and gold.
Total volume in the first 7 trading days is just shy of $19 billion. pic.twitter.com/AGaJMsnC9S
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) January 22, 2024
Why bitcoin’s price is down despite ETF approvals
Bitcoin was last up 1.3% to trade at $40,063 as of press time, reaching its lowest point in about seven weeks.
This represents a nearly 20% decline in price since the commencement of spot ETF trading on January 11.
Why did that happen? In short, outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) ETF.
GBTC’s conversion into a spot bitcoin ETF enabled investors to redeem their shares, leading to the sale of significant amounts of bitcoin.
This sudden increase in bitcoin supply on the market created a selling pressure.
Since its conversion to a spot ETF, GBTC has experienced about $2 billion in outflows.
Amid bitcoin’s recent struggles, the market has shown a sense of optimism for ether, fueled by the prospect of its own spot ETF applications.
Industry observers note that while there are proposals for ETFs holding ether directly, the regulator’s decision on these is not expected to be clear-cut.
Improved Layer-2 user experience, combined with the likelihood of a spot ether ETF later this year, is expected to stimulate renewed inflows.
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